Market next move is difficult to predict , but from last three days there was market heading towards very Volatile. We even have negative opening today also. So it sign of moving down or still market have some hope toward nifty 5200.
Let analyse on some points .
(i) Global Cues are still positive.
(ii) Forthcoming results : Earnings cycle for Indian companies had bottomed out and would only improve for the quarters ahead, which would be a positive for the markets
(iii) Short Term Correction : One needs to be cautious because the markets have already run up in the last few months. So in the short term, the markets may not go anywhere.
Our sense is that infact this is pretty much coming from our global macro strategy group who believe that over the next six months particularly the stars are going to line up for risky assets which includes emerging markets (EM) and this is pretty much premised on their expectation that global economic newsflow will remain robust, we will continue to see an accommodative fiscal and monetary stance which will provide ample of order for liquidity and therefore we should see risky assets continue to outperform the market. Therefore when a liquidity inspired bull market takes to the wing, it is difficult to justify the market based on fundamental and value indicators alone. So our Sensex fair value is 16,500 but we do believe that over the next six months in this environment, in this global sweet spot, it is likely that we could see an overshoot of our fundamental values.
Let analyse on some points .
(i) Global Cues are still positive.
(ii) Forthcoming results : Earnings cycle for Indian companies had bottomed out and would only improve for the quarters ahead, which would be a positive for the markets
(iii) Short Term Correction : One needs to be cautious because the markets have already run up in the last few months. So in the short term, the markets may not go anywhere.
Our sense is that infact this is pretty much coming from our global macro strategy group who believe that over the next six months particularly the stars are going to line up for risky assets which includes emerging markets (EM) and this is pretty much premised on their expectation that global economic newsflow will remain robust, we will continue to see an accommodative fiscal and monetary stance which will provide ample of order for liquidity and therefore we should see risky assets continue to outperform the market. Therefore when a liquidity inspired bull market takes to the wing, it is difficult to justify the market based on fundamental and value indicators alone. So our Sensex fair value is 16,500 but we do believe that over the next six months in this environment, in this global sweet spot, it is likely that we could see an overshoot of our fundamental values.
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