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Saturday, March 8, 2008

Market this Week ( 10th-15th March )

People do tend to follow momentum and particularly in India where HNIs tend to be a very large percentage of the OI in the listed derivatives market, so anecdotally, we have heard that a large part of that segment has been hurt quite a bit and so they might take a fair amount of time to come back in large institutions, these are the times when you can find very good value and you can get the size that you want.

We are probably, hopefully in the last leg of this sell off. Today, we saw some old fashion panic in the market. People were just pretty much throwing the baby with the bath water. Even if you have a deceleration in GDP in India from the high 8s to the low 8s, I would say valuations are high 7s. If it were to get there, I think nominal earnings per share on the major indices should still be in the high teens and valuation below 16,000 or if we were to get to the intraday lows of January 22, are quite attractive.
Again in the middle of this month we have a Fed meeting and expectations are again running high of another 75-bps, do you think these kinds of liquidity events can bolster sentiment beyond a point .
Market may be in end phase of sell off, so buy this week may be this week will be last opportunities to buy share for longer term.
Before 16,000 market is on good valuation and brings lot of opportunites.Buy this level is always a gives you good returns, in short term.
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