Market Analysis for Thursday

Fact : Can’t believe that in six days after crossing 16,000, this market is at 17,000. It’s completely amazing but that’s what happens when momentum takes over. We have just been grinding around between 4,000 and 4,500 and when we broke out we come to 5,000 on the Nifty, nearly so, this is just amazing.
One does not argue with the momentum in market. They take you to places much faster than one can reach and that’s what happened with us, an absolutely amazing feeling and India can’t be hotter.
Just look at the sequence of events. We have a big breakout above 16,000, beat Pakistan in a World Cup final, and we take out 17,000, just too many good things happening at the same time.

Market on Wednesday Shown Some strength in IT sector, Seen Some Correction in Petroleum and Steel Sector.

Their May be a chance of volatility in next two days of market.As it is time for Future and Options rollover.

Market at this level at some short of high priced .So ready for some volatility.

Market Analysis for Today

The indices battled weak and underperformance came from auto, metal and realty stocks followed by pharma, bank and oil & gas stocks. Nifty stood at 4,510 down 9 points, while Sensex shut shop at 15,590 down 26 points. Inflation for week ended August 25 stood at 3.79% as against 3.94% for the week ended August 18 whereas the market estimated it at 3.89%. The FIIs buying has also been considerable.

The September 18 Fed decision will be the key driver of market sentiment, believes experts. Sep 18 is an important day for the US when the interest rate policy is decided for the US but it’s an ongoing process and nothing to read too much into it. Although some people might get nervous thinking that the Fed might not cut rates.

I see a downside over the next three months where Nifty will range between 3750-4750. If we can sustain a couple of days above 4,500, we should get upto 4,640-4,650 and then probably again get into a bit of a range, while the market waits for a desired result on September 18. If the result is favourable, you would probably see an immediate breakout to new highs.


Market Next Week: Market next week will see some nervousness.Great Chance of a dip.

Detail Market Analysis ( 03-08-2007 )

Markets kicked off the week on a strong note, boosted by stock specific buying, indices shot ahead in the days trade and closed with handy gains. Good buying was seen in bank, capital goods, pharma and realty stocks. Select oil & gas, auto and IT stocks were under pressure. Nifty closed at 4,474 up 10 points, while Sensex shut shop at 15,422 up 103 points.

The market sentiment has improved quiet a bit particularity after the release of GDP data, which were better than expectations. "There is some sense of stability so we think that market would remain in a range for the next few days atleast by 15th September or so. We think that the market would be in a broad range of let’s say about 15,000 to about 16,000 odd levels.

I feels that there are no major fears now and the rollovers have become a bit of a non-event. There is some amount of volatility but it never last and overall impact on the market is not as much as players make it out to be. The recovery has been pretty fantastic for our markets. Clearly, we have outperformed our peer group over the past few trading sessions. But the bigger question is whether we can scale to a new high, higher than what we touched in the last week of July".

I feels that although there is a good amount of recovery in the Sensex stocks, going forward, there is not much of follow-up buying coming in around 16,000 levels. As of now also there is not enough clarity on the kind of turmoil, which is there in the global markets. We still are vulnerable to sell-offs, which takes place in the global markets. I think as of now it is fair to assume that market is in a kind of a range, where the previous top of about 15,868 would be difficult to cross and the bottom which was created below 14,000 has a good support level.

On how to approach a market like this, experts say it is a bit of a buy at decline kind of a market and selective at the same time because there is still scope for sharp corrections, retracement to take place depending upon the global cues. Experts believe that it is important to have some amount of cash in your portfolio as well because opportunities will be there going forward. Especially with the earnings season happening in October, there will be some more opportunity depending upon the way the news flows from the corporates.

The market looks good technically. He is concerned with the happenings in the US. Despite Bush and Bernanke's encouraging remarks, I don’t think we have seen the end of the credit crisis. We have definitely not put the credit crisis behind us..

I expect to see selling at higher levels and would remain cautious at these levels.On asked how he would approach the market now and whether he would buy or start profit booking he said, “I would do a little bit of that definitely, profit booking in the next 200-300 points rally should be looked at and perhaps we will cross the previous high because we have moved up so quickly and so easily from the lows without any real retail participation.

Market Analysis ( 31-08-2007 )

A good for the market holding 150 points up, no run away rally but its ambled along with a positive range for most of the day. The Nifty is trading at 4,450 of course of the morning’s highs both the Sensex and Nifty but no great damage has happened to prices.

Big stocks like Reliance and Tata Steel have done well and the midcaps have done particularly well; the midcap index is down 1.6% as we speak and lots of very liquid stocks including some of the one’s which have just got into F&O have letup the screen. So all and all a steady day for the market if not quite run away.

Market is at this level seems attractive to buy.It has been a roller coaster ride for most of the global markets on the back of factors like the sub prime mortgage crisis, credit crunch in the US, Yen carry trade.

Back home, Sensex has been closing in the green since the past three days(Aug 28-30) and has gained by 1.35%. BSE Sensex had been falling since July 27 when it was trading at 15,234 levels. It fell the maximum on Aug 21 when it traded at 13989 levels.

Today, Sensex is up by 207 points and we check out the list of stocks that are trading above their average traded price, ATP. Stocks trading above their average traded price is a positive indicator and shows the bullish sentiment of investors in the stock. This list comprises of stocks that have moved up on buying interest.


See our Predictions for Monday ( 03-09-2007 ) soon..............................

Today Market Analysis ( 30-08-2007)

All markets including indian market could be headed to new highs fairly soon....
that looks like the most likely scenario. I do not think India is going to be the best performing emerging market; it has not been this year and we do not think that’s going to be the case, because if one looks at China for instance, it is up over 90%, emerging market as a pack are up more than 20% and we are at 7-8%. So, we have not done as well. We will do some catching up, but still we think emerging markets as a class will outperform and within that India is going to participate.

Overall it is continous fourth day in week where market green continous.We are looking for some new high in market , positive on that .

See our tommorow market prediction soon before 12AM today.Wait.............

Total Market Analysis for 24th August 2007

The markets closed the week higher shrugging off any political concerns. Buying was seen in scrips across sectors. The cues from global peers supported the uptrend.

A brief mid-session drop brought back fears of another collapse, but the frontline indices found strength and surged in the afternoon, closing up nearly 2%.

The Sensex ended up 260.89 points, or 1.84%, at 14,424.87 while the Nifty closed up 75.20 points, or 1.83%, at 4,190.15. The index has recovered 535 points from week's low. It swung 810 points during the course of this week from 13,870 to 14,680.

On the other hand, the Nifty has recovered 140 points from the week's low. It swung nearly 222 points during the week from 4,040 to 4,262.

On the macroeconomic front, inflation for the week ended August 11 came in a tad higher at 4.1% as against 4.05% for the week ended August 4. The market had estimated it at 4.05%.

Metals, auto, capital goods, and oil and gas stocks were the outperformers in today's market. However, selling pressure is seen in select IT, realty, and pharma stocks.

BHEL, Tata Motors, Reliance Energy were among the top gainers on the Sensex. While the top losers on the indices were Dr Reddy's, Suzlon, HCL Tech, VSNL, and HDFC. Major gainers in the midcap space were JSW Steel, Arvind Mills, SEL Manufacturing, and Ashok Leyland. The Ashok Leyland scrip was up 2% on news reports that the company was planning a USD 700 million GDR issue.

In the forex market, the rupee had depreciated a little bit and was quoting at 41.09 against the dollar.

We will once again have to look at the next week in totality. Today’s gains are largely out of what we have seen in the earlier falls. Some of the negatives on which we have got some amount of clarity have become positive to a certain extent. Today’s gain is largely attributed to that. At the end of the week if you stay positive, next week will also be largely positive for you. I feel it may have some positive bearing when it opens next week.

The Left parties have said that they are not interested in breaking the government, which itself is a sort of a relief to most people who were earlier fearing that if the election comes then probably another three-six months will go away from our hands. To an extent, I will call it only relief because the fundamentals of companies and markets are quite strong. Even the inflation data, which has come in today, are inline with the kind of targets which the government have set. People are quite confident about valuations, so anything which is available at lower levels and if certainty were provided as far as the future is concerned, then people wouldn’t mind taking position in this market, and that’s what exactly we have seen today.

We are positive on domestic fundamentals but is skeptical on global cues, which could affect the market going forward. The markets can touch previous highs, if you are looking at the Indian fundamentals. But if you look at global cues and some of the disturbing impact it can have on our market, it may get delayed. It is bound to happen for sure. My confidence comes largely out of the corporate fundamentals and the growth of the Indian economy.

Both the global as well domestic political crisis seems to have subsided. Now, you can just say with some certainty that probably that will not recur for the next couple of months. You cannot take a definite call because nobody is capable of taking a call on the international sub-prime problem and what its depth is? Even on the domestic front, no one knows what the scenario will be.

We feels the Q2 results and overall monsoon will provide the next market direction. The next kicker would only be the Q2 results, which will start flowing in from mid-October. The kharif agricultural production and overall monsoon would also be able to give direction to the market. We will be watching the performance and outcome of these two adverse factors, which are likely to reoccur, again may be in the next couple of weeks or so. In that scenario, I don’t think that we can really expect to see new highs in the market, which is 15,500, or probably 4,500 on the Nifty. We are about 300 points short on the Nifty and about 1,200 points on the Sensex. We should remain happy if we hover around these levels for the next one-one and a half months and crossing or seeing news highs seems to be unlikely.

We are bullish on midcaps in the banking, cement, capital goods and logistics space. We definitely remain sector pickers. As far as our sectors of choice are concerned, they are banking, cement and capital goods, and some logistic stocks. Off these, we would definitely go for midcaps that are showing as much as 30-40% of topline and bottomline growth.

It's like the midcaps are taking a breather as far as our research outlook for the midcap space is concerned. We remain positive at lower levels in midcaps. This probably should be the beginning of fresh interest in midcap over the next six months to one year. We see this bottom as a buying opportunity.

We are underweight on autos but likes some midcaps in the infrastructure space. In the midcap cement space, he is positive on most stocks that are showing as much as 40-50% year-on-year growth.


Prediction : Market Will try to bullish next week.

Market Analysis ( 23-08-2007 )

1. Despite the positive news from the Bank of Japan regarding its decision not to change the interest rates and the global cues suggesting a cool down, it was a rather uncertain day for the markets today.
2. It was an extremely volatile session for the markets on the back of political uncertainty on the Indo-US nuke deal. There was extreme political nervousness after 1:00 pm, which took markets in the red zone.
3. The midcaps and smallcaps took it on the chin and ended with deeper cracks. Sensex and Nifty had been swinging sharply on both the side of flat line. Sensex swung nearly 400 points and Nifty has swung over 100 points. The fall came despite some positive cues from Asia and US equity markets.
4. There was heavy selling pressure across the board and all the key BSE indices ended in red except FMCG and IT socks. Banking stocks were severely hit today and the Bankex ended with over 2% cut.
5. Sensex was down 84.68 points or 0.59% at 14163.98, and the Nifty down 38.20 points or 0.92% at 4114.95.

Now the Lakh Rupees questions is where will be the tomorrow market?

Wait for our Predictions ....